Small Bet Experiments

2024 Biz lab

For those who haven’t read my 2024 experiments post, this year I’m back behind the macbook and writing code / exploring new business opportunities. I took a break last year after selling my company, and now it’s time to add value again.

The Plan

This year started out quite fluid. I’m writing this in July, and by now I’m fully back in the flow of things. The first half of this year I explored a few first ideas, wrote a course, worked on a WordPress plugin, and an affiliate site. I did all of this with only a vague plan, but I’m getting there.

This post is here to solidify my plans.

Q1, Q2 – I surrendered this half year to ‘getting back in the groove’.

Q3, Q4 – Launch small bets consistently.

For any entrepreneur or engineer coming back after a break I’d recommend this soft-start approach. If you’re ready to go, dig in, but if you have runway be compassionate with yourself. It’s better to find the right groove before committing.

My aims here:

  • Consistency
  • Experimentation
  • Merciless selection

I intend to commit to labour consistently. I will work on improving the start-to-launch turnaround, but more important than whacking things out is that the process is sustainable. I know in the mid-long term I’ll make something that hits the market just right, so it’s a case of settling in to a sustainable build/release/market cycle.

I will experiment. This means trying stuff, but it also means keeping an open mind and not chasing dollars directly. This was my key realisation in 2023 – that though profits matter, experimentation and authenticity are just as important to me.

“In writing, you must kill all your darlings,” William Faulkner famously wrote, suggesting that the process of self-editing requires stoicism and the suppression of a natural affection.

I will kill my darlings. Creating and innovating is my natural state, and is why the small bets approach suits me so well. The balance to that cycle of creation is destruction. I will manage my time so as to avoid “accidentally” spending half a year building something solely out of natural affection.

Small Bet Stack

As part of this experimental process I thought it’d be interesting to explore a range of models rather than relying on my ‘known’ entrepreneurial mode (Freemium SaaS/WordPress plugin based business).

As the year’s panned out I’ve allowed myself space to get back up to speed and collect together the different approaches I’ll use to test ideas.

These are well documented in the entrepreneurship ether, but I’ve not seen this selection put together before. I’ve expanded on this list with distribution models/pro’s & con’s here.

  1. Affiliate Marketing
  2. Online Education
  3. WordPress plugin
  4. AI Tool
  5. AI Tool generated product
  6. Consultancy / Microsites as a service
  7. Platform Arbitrage (Ethical Cloning)
  8. IRL Business
  9. Joint Ventures
  10. iOS/Android App
  11. Newsletter
  12. Podcast

I’m going to work my way through these concepts and make small bets as I go, testing different models and distribution paths. You can see my progress in my year of experiments post. If you want to get actionable tips from the front line join my newsletter.

Small bets so far:

Affiliate SiteBurnoutNutrition.com (Project)
Online EducationBuildProfit.io (Project)
WordPress PluginProjectPages.io (Project)
AI ToolTBC
AI Tool generated ProductTBC

One question I intend to answer is: Is it possible to get iterative benefits while exploring disparate small bet models? Will there be enough cross-over learning points to make this meaningful progression rather than scattershot?

The Criteria

So how do I evaluate each idea/execution? I’m super grateful that I’ve got a runway long enough to approach this as experimental. Giving these small bets time and focus allows me to gleam any useful information from the ventures, their profits or stumbling points, and to observe myself in the work.

All that’s to say, yes I am aiming for profit here, but I am also keeping my awareness on authenticity, and how much I enjoy the work.

Target outcome:

  • £10,000 per month net profit
  • Sustainable, enjoyable workload
  • Very happy customers, not environmentally destructive (win-win-win)
  • Authenticity
  • Craft, not crap
  • AI safe, or leveraging

Exploring:

  • High ROI, low touch products/services
  • My Leverage: skills, exit, network, cash, AI
  • AI & Biz generally
  • Distribution methods (ideally lollapalooza effects)
  • Iterative model across concepts/distribution platforms

Avoiding:

  • Make -> Market a tiny bit -> Abandon. (I will invest in marketing time, and will circle back and ‘top up’ the marketing on any potential wins. I’ll stack any success.)
  • Spreading too thin. Where possible I’ll keep small business bets targeting shared audiences. I’ll cull mercilessly.

Planning for success:

  • Ready to go all in on one if it takes off. Resources, time, mind, flexibility
  • All businesses have to fit criteria

2024 Goal:

Sharpen my tools. Reopen the lab. Remove old assumptions. Get back in the groove. Connect/Re-connect with an audience whom I can service/support authentically. End the year with much more data from the field, if not the £10k MRR.

Questions I’ll double back on this after the years out and answer:

  • Is it possible to get iterative benefits while exploring disparate small bet models?
  • Might it have been better to go all-in on a single idea?
  • What code libraries/scripts did I build which will be useful going forwards?
  • Did I hit my targets?
  • Did I move towards a greater authenticity?
  • Am I excited to carry on this experiment in 2025?

Let’s make mad sh*t.

I’ve made a lot of things in my life, and I intend to make a lot more. My biggest goal is to make a good and happy life.

Join my journey to authentic autonomy; let’s make craft software make money!

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